CASE FILE // PC-2026-04
Status: Open


Filing 02.00.00Field 27 APR 2026Classification PublicStatus Open

Phishing Cost by Attack Vector

Per-incident loss by category. BEC, spear, whaling, bulk email, vishing, smishing, and quishing have distinct cost profiles. The per-vector field is what determines whether a control investment actually pays back.

Exhibit A

Cost-by-vector summary

REFERENCE

CodeVectorAvg incidentVolume profile2026 trend
V-01Business Email Compromise (BEC)$4.67MPersistentUp 9% YoY
V-02Spear Phishing$1.76MTargetedUp sharply, AI-assisted
V-03Whaling / CEO Fraud$5.10MLow-volume, high-valueUp sharply
V-04Bulk Email Phishing$380KMass volumeFlat in count
V-05Vishing (Voice)$1.35MHelpdesk-targetedUp 1,633% Q1 2025
V-06Smishing (SMS)$870KHigh-volumeUp ~40% YoY
V-07Quishing (QR)$720KFilter-evasiveUp ~400%

Per-incident figures aggregate direct loss, forensics, IR, legal, and proportional regulatory exposure where applicable.[IBM 2025, IC3 2024, APWG 2025, Hoxhunt 2026]

Vector V-01

Business Email Compromise (BEC)

TOP LOSS

Average per incident
$4.67M
per successful incident
Source [IBM 2025 / IC3 2024]

Attacker spoofs or compromises an executive or vendor mailbox, then redirects a wire payment or invoice. The single largest loss-by-volume category in the IC3 docket: $2.77B aggregate US loss in 2024 across 21,442 complaints. Recovery rate sits below 30 percent.

Indicators

Last-minute payment-method change. Reply-to address differs from from-address. Out-of-pattern urgency. Approval bypass requests.

Vector V-02

Spear Phishing


Average per incident
$1.76M
per successful incident
Source [Verizon DBIR 2025]

Targeted, researched message to a specific individual. AI-spear-phish achieves a 54% click-through against a 12% baseline for human-written attempts (Hoxhunt). Hand-crafted volume now matches automation output.

Indicators

Personalised from public OSINT. Reference to recent calendar events. Sender domain similar but not identical to a known partner.

Vector V-03

Whaling / CEO Fraud


Average per incident
$5.10M
per successful incident
Source [IBM 2025]

C-suite impersonation, often paired with deepfake voice. The 2024 deepfake-call wire-transfer wave drove $200M+ in Q1 2025 reported losses. Boards are now in scope as both attack target and reputational risk owner.

Indicators

First-time wire request from C-suite. Out-of-band channel switch (call to confirm an email). Atypical hour.

Vector V-04

Bulk Email Phishing


Average per incident
$380K
per successful incident
Source [APWG 2025]

Mass credential-harvest emails. Per-incident cost is low, but APWG counts tens of thousands of distinct campaigns per quarter. Typically routes into credential-stuffing follow-on attacks. The one phishing category where filtering still meaningfully reduces volume.

Indicators

Generic salutation. Mismatched-domain links. Urgency tied to account closure or password reset.

Vector V-05

Vishing (Voice)

TRENDING

Average per incident
$1.35M
per successful incident
Source [Hoxhunt 2026]

Phone-based social engineering. The MGM Resorts incident (2023) is the canonical case. Deepfake voice cloning from 60 seconds of source audio is now a commodity capability. Helpdesk impersonation enables MFA bypass.

Indicators

Caller knows internal jargon. Pressure to bypass identity verification. Refusal of callback. Background noise spoofing.

Vector V-06

Smishing (SMS)


Average per incident
$870K
per successful incident
Source [APWG 2025]

Text-message phishing. Frequently paired with MFA prompt-bombing once credentials are harvested. Logistics-themed lures (carrier delivery) and tax-themed lures dominate by season.

Indicators

Shortened URL. Sender ID mismatch. Reference to a package or shipment user did not initiate.

Vector V-07

Quishing (QR)


Average per incident
$720K
per successful incident
Source [Keepnet 2025]

Phishing payload delivered via a QR code embedded as an image. Bypasses URL-rewriting and link-filtering at the email gateway. Mobile-first execution off the corporate network removes endpoint controls from the path.

Indicators

QR-only call to action. Internal-pretext (parking ticket, payroll). Image-only message body.

Updated 2026-04-27